Trump, in one statement, promises to end the war while actively bombing Iran. Such statements undoubtedly create confusion among traders. Thus, the sharp strengthening of the US dollar was the market's reaction to new, contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump. Just a day after expressing confidence in the imminent conclusion of military actions, Trump painted a completely different picture, hinting at the possibility of delivering an extremely powerful blow to Iran within the next two to three weeks. This information, presented in Trump's characteristic manner, sparked a flurry of speculation and nervousness in financial markets, leading to a strengthening of the dollar against riskier assets.

Today's European trading session is unlikely to be rich in important economic events. In the first half of the day, market participants will focus solely on Italy, where data on changes in retail sales will be published. These figures are one of the key indicators of consumer activity and, consequently, the overall condition of the country's economy. It is expected that the numbers will provide insight into the resilience of domestic demand in Italy.

Alongside the Italian data, the European Central Bank's economic bulletin is anticipated. This document typically includes a detailed analysis of the current economic situation in the eurozone, an assessment of inflation risks, and an assessment of growth prospects. Additionally, the bulletin may include further signals regarding the ECB's future monetary policy, which is particularly important in the context of current economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

As for the British pound, today's trading is expected to continue the bearish trend. The absence of significant reports from the UK creates an information vacuum that will further apply pressure on the GBP/USD pair. A market without new data for fundamental analysis tends to amplify existing trends, and in this case, the bearish trend seems likely to persist.

If the data meet economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (for Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.1535 may lead to an increase of the euro to the area of 1.1560 and 1.1590;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.1515 may lead to a decline of the euro to the area of 1.1485 and 1.1445;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.3220 may lead to a rise of the pound to the area of 1.3260 and 1.3290;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.3190 may lead to a decline of the pound to the area of 1.3162 and 1.3130;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 159.50 may lead to a rise of the dollar to the area of 159.74 and 159.94;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 159.30 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the area of 159.00 and 158.80;

Mean Reversion Strategy (for Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1558 on a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1504 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3252 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3195 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6896 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6859 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3930 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3894 on a return to this level;