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The GBP/USD currency pair also traded downward on Monday. Yes, the pound lost less than the euro and hasn't fallen as much over the past week. But look at the GBP/USD chart — how many differences do you see compared with EUR/USD? The fact that the pound offers some resistance to the dollar changes nothing. The British currency has fallen about 370 pips over the past month, the euro about 460. The main question is — why is the pound falling if the euro's decline is blamed on the French crisis?
In our view, the answer is obvious, and we have been saying it for several weeks. We repeat it almost every day because the FX market's situation does not change day to day. Clearly, the reasons for the same move each day are the same. And it is not central-bank monetary policy or geopolitical tension. The dollar rose on Federal Reserve tightening, rising expectations for Bank of England tightening, geopolitical easing, geopolitical tension, any crisis, and rising sovereign yields anywhere in the world. UK inflation accelerating and the BoE potentially raising rates at its next meeting does not matter. The fact that the UK economy grew stronger than market expectations in Q2 (as did the US economy) also does not matter.
So we stick to our opinion. First, the pound remains flat on the weekly timeframe. If a flat persists, there is no point looking for logic in day-to-day moves. Second, for about a month we have seen an inertial, speculative move. The dollar rises because it is being bought, and it is being bought because it is rising. Third, the euro, which can influence the pound, is in a long-term correction on the weekly TF, so we should expect that correction to complete. We still believe that the stronger the dollar grows now, the stronger it will fall later. The whole of 2026 has been surprise after surprise for the US currency. First the war between the US and Iran, then a shift toward tighter Fed views, and now the war in Yemen. Three "black swans" have already arrived and supported the dollar. If that flock of swans had not appeared, GBP/USD would long ago be trading above $1.40.
Instead, the pound has dropped to the lower boundary of the 1.3150–1.3780 sideways channel on the daily TF, so we expect a rebound and a move back to the upper boundary. After that — a resumption of the global uptrend. By the way, Donald Trump may soon become active and say the dollar is again too expensive and that the Fed should start easing.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 74 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Tuesday, October 6, therefore, we expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3141 and 1.3289. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down again. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice already, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.3184
S2 – 1.3123
S3 – 1.3062
R1 – 1.3245
R2 – 1.3306
R3 – 1.3367
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its illogical downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US dollar to rise in the long term. So far, 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital to flee to safety and the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly TF, a flat range persists between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, suggesting medium-term growth in the British currency. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3428 when price is above the moving average. When price is below the moving average, you can trade bearish, targeting 1.3184 and 1.3141. Be cautious with short positions, as the price is located at the lower boundary of the long-term sideways channel.
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