Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1582 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn down from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 25 pips.

The unstable situation in the Middle East continues to play a significant role. Reports are emerging of behind-the-scenes negotiations between the US and Iran, supposedly taking place with the involvement of third parties, which support the euro. However, Trump's actions suggest otherwise: reports of the redeployment of 3,000 American paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East do not indicate an imminent resolution to the conflict. On the contrary, this may suggest preparations for escalating tensions or, at the very least, intentions to maintain a significant military presence in the region. Such ambiguous circumstances create an atmosphere of unpredictability in the markets.

Today, we expect data from Germany, including assessments of current economic conditions and forecasts from the IFO Institute. The business climate index, along with the current situation assessment and future forecasts, provides a comprehensive view of sentiment in the German business sector. Improvements in these indicators may signal an acceleration of economic activity, while deterioration could raise concerns about slowing growth rates, which, in turn, will affect euro quotes. An additional focus will be on the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, statements from the head of the ECB may provide important signals regarding future monetary policy steps.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1600 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1622. At 1.1622, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong euro growth can only be expected after very good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1582 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards opposing levels of 1.1600 and 1.1622 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1582 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1562, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1600 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards opposing levels of 1.1582 and 1.1562 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.