The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1611, rebounding above the 3/8 Murray line and within the downtrend channel formed since May 11. On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is under downward pressure and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours if the price consolidates below 1.1596.

Given that the euro has repeatedly tested 1.1596 above 3/8, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 200 EMA located at 1.1679. Under this scenario, we expect the euro to break decisively and consolidate above the downtrend channel and above the 21 SMA around 1.1615.

If the euro continues to rise and consolidates above 1.1615 in the coming hours, the outlook could turn bullish, and this would be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 1.1679 and at the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1718.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will look for buying opportunities in the coming hours if the price remains above the 3/8 Murray line.

A decisive break and consolidation below 1.1596 could extend the bearish scenario, and the euro could reach the lower band of the uptrend channel around 1.1519.