Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.2006 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

In the second half of the day, the market will be influenced by the Federal Open Market Committee's decision regarding the key interest rate. The current policy is expected to remain unchanged, so the accompanying statement and the press briefing by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will attract much more attention. Any unexpected comments by the Fed chair on inflation or the labor market—depending on which he emphasizes—could seriously affect the market balance of power. Given how heavily oversold the dollar is, the chances of a strong rebound after Powell's speech are quite high. If the euro takes a wait-and-see position, it may quickly regain the initiative.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the level around 1.1987 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.2042 level. At 1.2042, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro should be expected only after weak economic data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1944 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1987 and 1.2042 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1944 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1900 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return amid strong economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1987 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1944 and 1.1900 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.