Trade analysis and tips for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3274 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. Closer to midday, there was another test of 1.3274, which coincided with the MACD beginning to move upward from the zero mark, providing a good entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to around 1.3320.

A slight correction in the pound after weak UK manufacturing PMI data was met with renewed active buying. The UK manufacturing PMI for March, released this morning, remained above 50 but showed a decline. However, contrary to expectations, the pound sterling not only avoided further decline but also demonstrated a confident recovery.

Next, market focus will undoubtedly shift to key macroeconomic indicators from the United States. In the first half of the day, investor attention will be on ADP employment change data. This leading indicator typically provides insight into the labor market and often precedes official statistics. Figures exceeding forecasts are expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, while weak data may trigger the opposite reaction. Alongside employment data, retail sales figures will also be released. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, and retail sales dynamics will provide valuable insight into the strength of consumer demand. Growth in line with or exceeding expectations will be seen as a positive signal supporting the dollar.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index will also be published. Strong ISM results may confirm economic resilience, while a drop below 50 points would signal potential problems.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3328 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3375 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3375, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction). A rise in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3294 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3328 and 1.3375 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks the 1.3294 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3254 level, where I will exit sell positions and also open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3328 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3294 and 1.3254 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.