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10.06.2024 05:04 PM
GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 10th (analysis of morning deals). The pressure on the pound has remained

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2729 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth occurred, but it never reached the test, and the formation of a false breakdown there. For this reason, I missed the deal and experienced further downward movement. In the afternoon, the technical picture still needed to be revised.

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To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The lack of data on the United States in the second half of the day will certainly preserve the downward potential for the pound, so be very careful with purchases, even on the decline. Only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2677, the minimum of last week, will give an entry point into long positions in order to return to the resistance of 1.2703, which acted as support in the morning. A breakout and a reverse top-down test of this range will certainly lead to an update of the next level of 1.2729, which is the maximum of today. The farthest target will be the 1.2755 area, where the moving averages are located. I'm going to make a profit there. In the scenario of a further decline in GBP/USD and a lack of activity on the part of the bulls at 1.2677 in the afternoon, which is more likely, the pound risks entering the bearish channel stage, which will only increase pressure on the pair. This will also lead to a decrease and update of the next 1.2646 support. Only the formation of a false breakout will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I'm going to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.2615 in order to correct by 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers retain all chances of building a bear market, and it is enough to gain a foothold below 1.2677. However, accomplishing this will take more work, so I'll have to rely on corrections in the afternoon, which I intend to utilize. The growth and formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.2703 will be the starting point for the entry into the sale of the pound in order to reduce to the area of 1.2677 – a large support level, where I expect an active manifestation of buyers of the pound. A breakout of this range and a reverse bottom-up test will deal another blow to the bulls' positions, leading to the demolition of stop orders and opening the way to 1.2646. The farthest target will be the 1.2615 area, where I will record profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and lack of activity at 1.2703 in the afternoon, buyers will keep trading within a wider side channel. In this case, I will postpone sales until a false breakdown at 1.2729. In the absence of a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2755, but only counting on a correction of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.

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In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for May 28, there was a sharp increase in long positions and a slight increase in short positions. Despite the fact that economists continue to believe that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by the end of the summer, the situation may change at any moment. The increase in price pressure that is currently being observed in the United States and the eurozone may become a problem area for the Bank of England on the way to easing monetary policy. Given that things are also not going well in the UK, especially with regard to inflation in the service sector, many market participants expect policy changes to be made later, which is reflected in the growth of the pound against the US dollar. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions increased by 24,503 to 93,041, while short non-profit positions increased by only 154 to 67,639. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 8,775.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the indicator's lower limit of 1.2695 will act as support.

Description of the indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.

• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9

• Bollinger Bands. Period 20

• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.

• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.

• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.

• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
GBPUSD
Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar
Summary
Sell
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
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